Carnoustie 2018 British Open - Predictions & Picks

Who will win the 2018 British Open at Carnoustie Golf Links? Our research staff offers analysis and predictions. The 2018 British Open is scheduled for July 19-22 at Carnoustie Golf Links.

⛳Trends

⦿ Carnoustie has hosted seven Open Championships with winning scores ranging from -9 (1975) to +8 (2008). The average winning score is slightly under par and the median is +1. Winning scores for the last three Opens at Carnoustie are -9, +6 and -7 respectively. Winds play a definite factor in the scoring. When winds are up, the scores are significantly higher. A reliable weather report will be key to making good picks.

Top wind players: Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott, Henrik Stenson
Bogey avoidance: Henrik Stenson, Dustin Johnson, Rickie Fowler, Webb Simpson, Justin Rose

⦿ Carnoustie is a Par 71 links course that features a number of hazards including thick fescue, pot bunkers and water. Length is an advantage but is not crucial to winning. Accuracy off the tee and scrambling are important here.

Total Driving: Tommy Fleetwood, Gary Woodland, Adam Scott, Justin Rose, Jason Day
Driving Accuracy: Henrik Stenson, Ryan Armour, Kyle Stanley, Ryan Moore, Chez Ravie
Scrambling: Louis Oosthuizen, Webb Simpson, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Henrik Stenson

⦿ Unlike the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open which feature a variety of courses, all of the host venues at the British Open are links courses. Although aesthetics and design may vary, the general course philosophy is the same. Players who enjoyed previous success at the Open tend to continue to enjoy success. Also, Carnoustie has been one of the host courses for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (on the European Tour) since 2001. Familiarity with the course gives Europe-based players an advantage over U.S.-based players.

Last five Open champions: Jordan Spieth, Henrik Stenson, Zach Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson
Top non-champions in last five years: Sergio Garcia (three top-10s), Marc Leishman (three top-6s), Brooks Koepka (two top-10s), Rickie Fowler (T2 in 2014), Dustin Johnson (two top-10s)
2017 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship: 1. Tyrrell Hatton | Ross Fisher, Levy Alexander, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Matthew Fitzpatrick

⦿ Due to unique course conditions, form is only one of the many ingredients attributed to British Open's success. Course aptitude, past success and local knowledge are also key factors.

Form (OWGR 2018 points gained): Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Bryson DeChambeau, Alex Noren, Tommy Fleetwood
Last three major champions: Brooks Koepka, Patrick Reed, Justin Thomas
Top non-winner at last three majors: Rickie Fowler (two top 10s), Dustin Johnson (two top 10s), Henrik Stenson (two top 10s), Tony Finau (two top 10s), Tommy Fleetwood (U.S. Open runner-up)

Aggregates

1. Henrik Stenson (former winner, two top 6s in last two majors, scrambling & driving accuracy)
2. Brooks Koepka (U.S. Open winner, top non-winner at Open, European Tour alum)
3. Rickie Fowler (Former runner-up, strong record at the majors, top wind player)
4. Dustin Johnson (former runner-up, bogey avoidance, performance at last three majors)
5. Tommy Fleetwood (Course record 63 in 2017, total driving)
6. Patrick Reed (Masters champion, three consecutive top 5s at the majors)

🏆
Congrats to Francisco Molinari for winning 2018 Open Championship

2 comments:

  1. The 2018 Open Championship will be the 147th Open Championship, held 19–22 July 2018 at Carnoustie Golf Links in Angus, Scotland. It will be the eighth Open Championship played at Carnoustie.
    The 2018 Open Championship will be the third to be televised domestically by Sky Sports. In the United States, it will be the third Open Championship to be televised by NBC (Golf Channel's parent network).


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  2. The 2018 Open Championship will be the 147th Open Championship, held 19–22 July 2018 at Carnoustie Golf Links in Angus, Scotland. It will be the eighth Open Championship played at Carnoustie.
    The 2018 Open Championship will be the third to be televised domestically by Sky Sports. In the United States, it will be the third Open Championship to be televised by NBC (Golf Channel's parent network).


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