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2017 NFL Week 1 - Picks & Predictions

Week 1 of the 2017 NFL regular season is set to begin on Thursday, September 7. Fifteen games are scheduled for September 7-11. Our picks and predictions for NFL Week 1 are purely data-based with no inputs from football experts.

Kansas City Chiefs at NE Patriots (Thursday, September 7)

Trends: The Chiefs is 3-2 in its last five opening games; the Patriots is 4-1. New England's head coach Bill Belichick enjoys a 5-1 lifetime record against his Kansas City's counterpart. Both teams made the playoffs last season. The Patriots ranked in the top 10 in both offense and defense, while the Chiefs ranked outside the top 15 in both categories. So far in the preseason, KC is 2-2 and NE is 1-3.

Odds of winning: Kansas City 44% | New England 56%
Actual Result: Kansas City def. New England 42-27

NY Jets at Buffalo Bills (Sunday, September 10)

Trends: The Jets is 4-1 in its last five opening games; the Bills is 2-3. Both teams failed to make the playoffs last year, though Buffalo (7-9) was more competitive. The Bills ranked 16th in total offense compared to 26th for the Jets. New York's defense was more solid last year outpacing Buffalo seven places in the ranking. Head to head, the Bills is 3-2 against the Jets in their last five meetings though New York has won the last two. So far in the preseason, NY is 2-2 and Buffalo is 1-3.

Odds of winning: New York 52% | Buffalo 48%
Pick/Prediction: New York wins by 3

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (Sunday, September 10)

Trends: The Steelers is 2-3 in its last five opening games; the Browns is 0-5. Cleveland is coming off a horrid 1-win season. This is not a one-off because the team won only three games in the year prior. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, made it the conference championship last year losing to the Patriots. Head to head, the Steelers won four straight games against the Browns including two in Cleveland. So far in the preseason, Pittsburgh is 3-1 and Cleveland is 4-0.

Odds of winning: Pittsburgh 64% | Cleveland 36%
Pick/Prediction: Pittsburgh wins by 14

Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans (Sunday, September 10)

Trends: The Raiders is 1-4 in its last five opening games; the Titans is 3-2. Oakland made the playoffs last season with twelve wins, while Tennessee was solid with nine wins. The Raiders was among the top offensive teams last year, but ranked poorly in defense. The Titans was mediocre in both categories. Head to head, Oakland won the last two meetings while Tennessee won the previous three. So far in the preseason, Oakland is 0-4 and Tennessee is 1-3.

Odds of winning: Oakland 52% | Tennessee 48%
Pick/Prediction: Oakland wins by 3

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (Sunday, September 10)

Trends: The Eagles is 4-1 in its last five opening games (including a win against Washington), while the Redskins has lost the last four. Both teams missed the playoffs last season winning seven and eight games respectively. Philadelphia was solid in both offense and defense. Washington ranked 3rd in offense but 28th in defense. Head to head, the Eagles has lost its last five meetings with the Redskins. So far in the preseason, Philadelphia is 2-2 and Washington is 2-2.

Odds of winning: Philadelphia 50% | Washington 50%  *Virtual tie
Pick/Prediction: Washington wins by 3 or less

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (Sunday, September 10)

Trends: The Jaguars is 0-5 in its last five opening games; the Texans is 4-1. Jacksonville had one of the worst records last season, while Houston finished first in its division two years in a row. Both teams were among the top defensive teams last year. Head to head, Houston has won six straight games against Jacksonville including two last season. So far in the preseason, Jacksonville is 2-2 and Houston is 1-2.

Odds of winning: Jacksonville 32% | Houston 68%
Pick/Prediction: Houston wins by 10

Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions (Sunday, September 10)

Trends: The Cardinals is 3-2 in its last five opening games; the Lions is 4-1. Arizona missed the playoffs last season with seven wins, while Detroit barely made the playoffs with nine wins. Detroit was 6-2 at home last season. Statistically, the Cardinals ranked in the top 10 in both total defense and total offense last year; the Lions ranked outside the top 10 in both categories. Head to head, Arizona is on a 7-game winning streak against Detroit. So far in the preseason, Arizona is 2-3 and Detroit is 2-2.

Odds of winning: Arizona 51% | Detroit 49%   *Within margins of error
Pick/Prediction: Arizona wins by 3 or less

Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears (Sunday, September 10)

Trends: The Falcons is 3-2 in its last five opening games; the Bears is 2-3. Atlanta reached the Super Bowl last season, while Chicago struggled to only three wins. The Falcons and Bears rarely play against each other; their last meeting was in 2014 with Chicago coming out victorious. So far in the preseason, Atlanta is 0-4 and Chicago is 2-2.

Odds of winning: Atlanta 54% | Chicago 46%
Pick/Prediction: Atlanta wins by 7

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday, September 10)

Trends: The Ravens is 2-3 in its last five opening games; the Bengals is 3-2. Both teams missed the playoffs last season, though Baltimore spotted a better record with eight wins. Statistically, Baltimore was better defensively while Cincinnati was a slightly better offensive team. Head to head, the Bengals enjoys a 4-1 record in the last five meetings; the teams split their two games last seasons. So far in the preseason, Baltimore is 4-0 and Cincinnati is 2-2.

Odds of winning: Baltimore 52% | Cincinnati 48%
Pick/Prediction: Baltimore wins by 3 or 7

Indianapolis Colts at LA Rams (Sunday, September 10)

Trends: The Colts is 1-4 in its last five opening games; the Rams is 2-3. Both teams missed the playoffs last season but Indianapolis won four more games. Indianapolis ranked 10th in offense and 30th in defense; Los Angeles ranked last in offense but 9th in defense. The Rams was a horrid 1-7 at home last season. The two teams last met in 2013 with the Colts winning big at home. So far in the preseason, Indianapolis is 2-2 and LA is 2-2.

Odds of winning: Indianapolis 52% | Los Angeles 48%
Pick/Prediction: Indianapolis wins by 3 or 7

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (Sunday, September 10)

Trends: The Seahawks is 3-2 in its last five opening games; the Packers is 2-3. Both teams made the playoffs last season with ten wins. Seattle was the better defensive team last year, while Green Bay was the better offensive team. At home, Green Bay was 6-2. Head to head, the Packers is 3-2 over the Seahawks in their last five meetings. So far in the preseason, Seattle is 4-0 and GB is 3-1.

Odds of winning: Seattle 50% | Green Bay 50%  *Virtual tie
Pick/Prediction: Green Bay wins by 3 or less

Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (Sunday, September 10)

Trends: The Panthers is 2-3 in its last five opening games; the 49ers is 5-0. Both teams easily missed the playoffs last season with Carolina winning four more games. San Francisco ranked near bottom of most statistical categories last year, while Carolina was in the middle of the pack. Head to head, the Panthers is 4-1 over their last five meetings. So far in the preseason, Carolina is 2-2 and SF is 2-2.

Odds of winning: Carolina 54% | San Francisco 46%
Pick/Prediction: Carolina wins by 7

NY Giants at Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, September 10)

Trends: The Giants is 1-4 in its last five opening games; the Cowboys is 3-2 with all three wins coming at the expense of the Giants. Both teams made the playoffs last season with Dallas winning two more games. Dallas was noticeably the better offensive team, while New York was the better defensive team. At home, the Cowboys was 7-1 last year but its lone loss was to the Giants. Head to head, New York has won three straight games against Dallas and is 3-2 in the last five meetings. So far in the preseason, NY is 2-2 and Dallas is 3-1.

Odds of winning: New York 49% | Dallas 51%  *Within margins of error
Pick/Prediction: Dallas wins by 3

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (Monday, September 11)

Trends: The Saints is 1-4 in its last five opening games; the Vikings is 3-2. Both teams failed to make the playoffs last season. New Orleans was the top offensive team last year, while Minnesota ranked third in total defense. At home, the Vikings was 5-3. The two teams last met in 2014 with the Saints coming out on top. So far in the preseason, NO is 2-2 and Minnesota is 2-2.

Odds of winning: New Orleans 49% | Minnesota 51%  *Within margins of error
Pick/Prediction: Minnesota wins by 3

LA Chargers at Denver Broncos (Monday, September 11)

Trends: The Chargers is 2-3 in its last five opening games; the Broncos is 5-0. Both teams missed the playoffs last season, but Denver won four more games. Los Angeles was above average in both offense and defense, while Denver was among the top defensive teams. At home, the Broncos was 5-3 last year. Head to head, Denver is 4-1 in the last five meetings with the only loss being away. So far in the preseason, LA is 1-3 and Denver is 4-0.

Odds of winning: Los Angeles 42% | Denver 58%
Pick/Prediction: Denver wins by 7 or 10

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