2017 Greenbrier Classic - Predictions

Who will win the 2017 Greenbrier Classic? Our research staff provides analysis and predictions. The 2017 Greenbrier Classic is scheduled for July 6-9 at The Old White TPC in West Virginia.

⛳Trends

✪ The last four winning scores at the Greenbrier are -13, -16, -13, -16. We expect this year's winning score to be between -13 and -16, but it could go lower due to alterations to the course caused by last year's flooding. Winners on tour this year (excluded majors and WGCs) with a winning score in this range are Jason Dufner, Adam Hadwin and Jon Rahm. What these players have in common is a strong iron game (especially from 75-125 yards).

Top iron players (overall): Kevin Kisner, Phil Mickelson, Stewart Cink, Webb Simpson, Jimmy Walker
Top iron players (100-125): Kevin Streelman, Chad Campbell, Derek Fathauer, Webb Simpson, Camilo Villegas
Top iron players (75-100): Tom Hoge, Phil Mickelson, Kelly Kraft, Sam Saunders, Roberto Castro

✪ Old White TPC is a Par 70 course with twelve Par 4s and only two Par 5s. The other Par 70 courses on tour are Sea Island, Waialae, Colonial, Southwind, River Highlands and Potomac. Players who do well on these Par 70 courses tend to perform strongly on the Par 4s and scramble well.

Top Par 4 players: Charles Howell III, Stewart Cink, Jamie Lovemark, Tony Finau, Webb Simpson
Top scramblers: Charles Howell III, Chad Campbell, Webb Simpson, John Huh, Bill Haas

✪ This is a relatively new tournament with only six editions played, so past success is not a major indicator. However, there are several players in this field who have a solid record at this event.

Former champions: Danny Lee, Angel Cabrera, Jonas Blix, Ted Potter Jr., Scott Stallings, Stuart Appleby
Top non-champions: Jimmy Walker (three top-5s including a T2), Bill Haas (three top-25s including a T2), Webb Simpson (three top-10s)

✪ Form

Season: Kevin Kisner, Charles Howell III, Russell Henley, Mackenzie Hughes, Bill Haas
Last three events played: Kevin Kisner, Bill Haas, Patrick Reed, Charles Howell III, Phil Mickelson

Aggregates

1. Webb Simpson
2. Bill Haas
3. Charles Howell III
4. Phil Mickelson
5. Kevin Kisner
6. Stewart Cink
7. Jimmy Walker

🏆Predictions

Winner: Webb Simpson. Like other Par 70 courses, Old White TPC favors strong iron players with solid scrambling skills. Think of Old White as Merion without the extreme difficulty. We believe Simpson's game is an excellent fit for this course. The former U.S. Open champion is among the best iron players in this field, especially from 100-125 yards. He ranks 14th on tour in Par 4 scoring and 3rd in scrambling. Unsurprisingly, his record here is stellar. In six career starts, he has three top-10 finishes. Simpson's season has been solid with seven top-25s, including a runner-up at the Phoenix Open.

Top 10 Finish: Bill Haas. Like Simpson, Haas enjoys a strong record at Old White. He has three top-25 finishes including a T2 in 2011. One of the reasons he has done so well here is his underrated scrambling skills and short game. Haas ranks 21st in scrambling and 11th in SG Around the Green. The North Carolina native comes into this event in great form with four straight top-25 finishes.

Top 25 Finish: Stewart Cink. The former major champion's game is tailor-made for Par 70 courses. He is an excellent iron player and one of the best players on Par 4. In his four starts on Par 70 courses this season, he has three top-10s and a T36 for a combined 33 under par. Needless to say, he loves this type of course. Cink, who is using a one-time career money list exemption, has been playing well with nine top-25s this season.