Elections Research Center

This page is dedicated to provide predictions and data analysis for U.S. elections as well as key presidential and parliamentary elections around the world. The research team is led by a political researcher with a Master's Degree in Economics from San Diego State University.

United States

Political Popularity Index
*People reveal their preference through various mediums including web search, social media, opinion surveys and financial decisions. Our model takes into account a number of key metrics.

The Republicans and Democrats are the two major political parties in the United States. We are comparing the two groups in term of popularity. A party may be unpopular in general but could still be more popular than the other party.

This month:   Trump/Republicans    *       Democrats  +3
June 2017:    Trump/Republicans    *       Democrats  +6    
May 2017:     Trump/Republicans  Even    Democrats  Even 
April 2017:     Trump/Republicans    *       Democrats  +13
March 2017:  Trump/Republicans    *       Democrats  +1 
Feb 2017:      Trump/Republicans  +6    Democrats   *  
Full 2017:      Trump/Republicans    *       Democrats  +4

Analysis: President Donald Trump and the Republicans started the year well with solid public support in February. The Neil Gorsuch nomination proved to be popular for the president. However, the Republican party's failed attempt to repeal and replace Obamacare in April greatly eroded the early support. In fact, the Democrats earned their highest support of the year in that month. The House managed to narrowly pass the healthcare bill in May and as a result, the Republicans regained some support. The Democrats have an edge in June and early July, but the moderate margins do not suggest election troubles for the Republicans just yet.

Trump Tracker 2017

Top 10 states with most support: 
Texas*, Montana*, Wyoming*, Alaska*, Kansas*, Iowa*, Georgia*, Utah*, Wisconsin*, Oregon
Top 10 states with most opposition: 
Rhode Island, Delaware, Vermont, Massachusetts, California, Maryland, Louisiana*, Pennsylvania*, Indiana*, Illinois

*States won by Trump in 2016

Elections Calendar 2017

April 11 - Ron Estes (R) wins a Kansas special election for a U.S. House seat
May 25 - Greg Gianforte (R) wins a Montana special election for a U.S. House seat
June 6 - Jimmy Gomez (D) wins a California special election for a U.S. House seat
June 20 - Karen Handel (R) wins a Georgia election runoff for a U.S. House seat
June 20 - Ralph Norman (R) wins a South Carolina special election for a U.S. House seat

November 7
Utah Special House Election
New Jersey Gubernatorial
Virginia Gubernatorial
New York City Mayoral
Atlanta Mayoral

December 12
Alabama Special Senate Election

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