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2017 WGC-Mexico Championship - Predictions

Who will win the 2017 WGC-Mexico Championship? Our research staff offers predictions and analysis. The 2017 WGC-Mexico Championship is scheduled for March 2-5 at Club de Golf Chapultepec.

⛳Course Preview

In a response to President Trump, the PGA Tour decided to move the host venue from Doral to Club de Golf Chapultepeca. This marks the first time Mexico will host a high-profile international golf event. Local reports suggest Club de Golf Chapultepeca will likely be one of the easier WGC courses. The tree-lined venue features generous fairways and large greens. We expect the winning score to be 18+ under par, though there are still many variables that might affect the scoring.

🏌Analysis

OWGR Rankings
Dustin Johnson - 1
Rory McIlroy - 3
Hideki Matsuyama - 4
Henrik Stenson - 5
Jordan Spieth - 6

Birdie Average
Justin Thomas 5.29
Jordan Spieth 5.15
Hideki Matsuyama 5.00
Russell Knox 4.71
Phil Mickelson 4.63

Strokes Gained
Rickie Fowler 2.74
Dustin Johnson 2.73
Jon Rahm 2.16
Justin Rose 2.13
Jordan Spieth 2.11

Recent Form
Jon Rahm - 1 win, three top-16s.
Jordan Spieth - 1 win, three top-25s.
Dustin Johnson - 1 win, T3.
Rickie Fowler - 1 win, T4.
Hideki Matsuyama - 1 win, T33.

Modified JScore
1. Jordan Spieth +6.0
2. Dustin Johnson +4.0
3. Hideki Matsuyama -1.0
4. Jon Rahm -3.0
5. Rickie Fowler -4.0
6. Justin Thomas -11.0
7. Justin Rose -13.0
NR. Rory McIlroy *First PGA Tour start of 2017
NR. Henrik Stenson *First PGA Tour start of 2017

🏆Predictions

Winner: Jon Rahm. For the 22-year-old rising star, this WGC event will feel like a home start. With only one Mexican player (Roberto Diaz) in the field, the Spanish-speaking Rahm is expected to draw strong support from the local crowd and it is for a good reason. He has been the talk of the PGA Tour the past month. Rahm overpowered a difficult Torrey Pines South to win his first PGA Tour title, followed it up with a good performance at the Phoenix Open where he shot a 65 in the third round, and fought well at windswept Pebble Beach for a T5 finish. His aggressive game perfectly suits Chapultepeca, which is expected to yield lots of birdies. On a course that is unfamiliar to most of the players, current form trumps experience. A win here will place Rahm among the elites in world golf.

Top 10 Finish: Rory McIlroy. He has missed two months to an injury and this WGC event will be his first PGA Tour start in 2017. These factors may very well prevent the former world no. 1 player from winning this week, but it would be a grave mistake to discount the most talented player since Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson. Even when he is not 100%, he could still drive the ball longer than most players and consistently make spectacular shots with his irons. McIlroy possesses an uncanny ability to go really low when he needs to. We tasted a little bit of it last year when he rallied from six shots behind after 54 holes to win the Deutsche Bank Championship. In a no-cut event such as the World Golf Championship, players like McIlroy have the advantage.

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